Market Outlook
October 09, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
0.3
97
34,474
U.S. stocks saw considerable volatility during trading on Monday, as many traders
Nifty
0.3
31
10,348
remained away from their desks amid the Columbus Day holiday. The major
Mid Cap
(1.9)
(278)
13,724
averages showed wild swings over the course of the trading session. Eventually, the
Small Cap
(2.1)
(277)
13,562
major averages ended the day mixed. The Dow rose by 0.2 percent to 26,487,
Bankex
1.2
316
27,543
while the Nasdaq fell by 0.7 percent to 7,736.
UK stocks fell on yesterday to hover near three-week lows after surveys released by
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Deloitte and the British Chambers of Commerce highlighted concerns among British
businesses over Brexit. A weak pound helped to limit overall losses to some
Dow Jones
0.2
40
26,487
extent.The FTSE 100 was down by 0.3 percent at 7,296.
Nasdaq
(0.7)
(53)
7,736
FTSE
(0.3)
(23)
7,296
On domestic front, Indian shares rose slightly on Monday to snap a three-day
Nikkei
(0.8)
(190)
23,783
losing streak as oil prices fell sharply and the government said it will not go back on
fuel deregulation, helping spur a rally in the battered oil sector. The BSE Sensex was
Hang Seng
(1.4)
(370)
26,202
up by 0.3% to 34,474.
Shanghai Com
(3.7)
(104)
2,761
News Analysis
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
India and US bilateral trade rises 119% since 2007 at $126.2 billion
Advances
527
299
Exit Aavas Financiers at CMP: `773
Declines
2,128
1,480
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Unchanged
146
278
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Volumes (` Cr)
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
BSE
1,820
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
NSE
853
Refer Pg5 onwards
Top Picks
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
FII
(1,077)
(1,418)
(6,857)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
550
867
57.6
*MFs
1,125
3,967
80,584
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Buy
219
555
153.4
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
231
410
77.5
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Bata India
Others
Buy
894
1,243
39.0
178
8.5
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
270
486
80.1
More Top Picks on Pg4
220
7.1
GDL
155
6.0
Key Upcoming Events
IOC
124
5.6
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
1107
5.5
Oct 10, 2018 UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
0.90
Oct 10, 2018 US
Consumer price index (mom)
0.20
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Oct 11, 2018 India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
4.00
DHFL
223
-18.5
Oct 12, 2018 India
Industrial Production YoY
6.60
Oct 12, 2018 China
Exports YoY%
9.80
151
-13.7
More Events on Pg7
73
-13.1
494
-12.7
1007
-11.6
As on Oct 8, 2018
Market Outlook
October 09, 2018
News Analysis
India and US bilateral trade rises 119% since 2007 at $126.2 billion
Bilateral trade of goods and services between India and the US has gone up by
119 per cent since 2007, touching $126.2 billion, according to the data collated
by the office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).
According to the data, exports were valued at $49.4 billion and imports were
worth $76.7 billion. The US goods and services trade deficit with India was $27.3
billion in 2017. The data comes at a time when the two nations are locked in a
trade war.
USTR said on its website that India is its ninth largest goods trading partner with
$74.3 billion in total (two-way) goods trade during 2017. Goods exports totaled
$25.7 billion and goods imports totaled at $48.6 billion. The US goods trade
deficit with India was $22.9 billion in 2017.
US exports to India accounted for 1.7 per cent of overall US exports in 2017. The
top export categories in 2017 were precious metals and stone (diamonds) at $7
billion, mineral fuels ($2.8 billion), aircraft ($2.2 billion), machinery ($2.1 billion),
and optical and medical instruments ($1.4 billion). US exports of services to India
were estimated at $23.7 billion in 2017, 15.2 per cent ($3.1 billion) more than
2016, and 174 per cent higher than 2007 levels. Leading services exports from
the US to India were in the travel, intellectual property (computer software, audio
and visual related products), and transport sectors.
In the imports bracket, India was the United States' 11th largest supplier of goods
in 2017.
Exit Aavas Financiers at CMP: `773
Aavas Fianciers made debut on the bourses at `787, which was below its issue
price of `821on 8 October, 2018. We had recommended 'Neutral' looking at the
limited geographical presence, intense competition and regional concentration of
its loan portfolio. It was also valued at a PB of 4.3x at the time of listing, which is
higher than its established competitors.
Hence, at the CMP we close our view on the stock.
Economic and Political News
IMF retains economic growth projection for India at 7.3% for FY19
Response to trade war takes centre stage as govt mulls fresh import curbs
Provincial Insolvency Act needs to be repealed for the bankruptcy rules
National Housing Bank raises cap on refinancing to Rs 300 billion
Market Outlook
October 09, 2018
Corporate News
Oil marketing firms threaten to cut supply to Air India in case of default
Creditors put Videocon arm’s overseas assets on sale
IL&FS faces impairments of ₹ 15,000 crore in loans, equity
Air India makes fresh bid to raise ₹ 500 crore
GMR Infra seals deal with three PE investors, gives 5.8% in airport firm
Market Outlook
October 09, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur
well for Cooling products business which is out
Blue Star
5,302
550
867
57.6
pacing the market growth. EMPPAC division's
profitability
to
improve once operating
environment turns around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
6,897
219
555
153.4
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
1,99,394
309
416
34.6
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
2,119
270
486
80.1
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the
revenues and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,790
313
475
51.8
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,898
405
752
85.7
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,08,224
6,904
10,820
56.7
improve the company’s sales volume and
margins, respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,276
237
486
105.1
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in
NIM improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,580
708
1,071
51.3
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
23,136
105
198
88.6
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
1,945
231
410
77.5
Value Added Products and reduction in interest
cost is likely to boost margins and earnings in next
few years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
5,28,748
1,945
2,350
20.8
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 09, 2018
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on
back of new launches and facelifts in some of
M&M
96,353
775
1,050
35.5
the model ) and strong growth in Tractors
segment coupled by its strong brand recall
and improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner
(RAC) outsourced manufacturing space in India
with a market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,778
883
1,230
39.3
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
11,499
894
1,243
39.0
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by
Shriram Transport Finance
rising bond yields on the back of stronger
21,101
930
1,764
89.7
pricing power and an enhancing ROE by
750bps over FY18-20E, supported by decline
in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at
27%
CAGR over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong
steel demand and capacity addition. On the
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
16,929
174
327
87.9
bottom line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to
profit by FY19 on back of strong operating
margin improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaulder
1,330
910
1,287
41.4
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
43,037
734
870
18.5
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees
Yes Bank
50,988
220
365
65.9
income. We expect YES to grow its advance
much higher than industry and improvement in
asset quality to support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy
CAGR of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers
RBL Bank
21,028
495
690
39.4
level ROA
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by
margin expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the
leading brands in kitchen appliances in India
after its successful transformation from a single
TTK Prestige
6,822
5,855
8,200
40.1
product company to offering an entire gamut
of home and kitchen appliances. We are
expecting a CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25%
in PAT over FY2018-20.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 09, 2018
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential
growth in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-
20E. The growth would be led by changing
renewable energy industry dynamics in favor of
Inox Winds
1,729
77
127
64.9
wind energy segment viz. changes in auction
regime from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse
auction regime and Government’s guidance for
10GW auction in FY19 and FY20 each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to
change in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger
pre-buying activities), pick up in construction
Ashok Leyland
32,114
109
156
43.1
activities and no significant impact on industry
due to recent axle load norms, we recommend
BUY on Ashok Leyland at current valuations.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,302
246
360
46.3
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,342
1,569
2,178
38.8
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,494
1,885
2,500
32.6
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
1,680
137
256
86.9
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
23,935
118
210
78.0
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
October 09, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Oct 10, 2018
2:00 PMUK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Aug
0.90Oct 10, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Sep
0.20
Oct 11, 2018
2:30 PMIndia
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
%
Oct 5
4.00Oct 11, 2018
Oct 12, 2018
5:30 PMIndia
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Aug
6.60Oct 12, 2018
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Sep
9.80
Oct 16, 2018
0-Jan-00UK
Jobless claims change
Thousands
Sep
8.70Oct 16, 2018
0-Jan-00China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Sep
2.30
Oct 19, 2018
0-Jan-00China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
3Q
6.70Oct 19, 2018
Oct 25, 2018
0-Jan-00Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
%
Oct 25
-Oct 25, 2018
Oct 30, 2018
0-Jan-00
Euro ZoneEuro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
3Q A
0.40Oct 30, 2018
Nov 01, 2018
0-Jan-00
UKBOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Nov 1
0.75Nov 01, 2018
Nov 14, 2018
0-Jan-00
GermanyGDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
3Q P
2.30Nov 14, 2018
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 09, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
8.2
6.9
6.9
8.0
8.1
6.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.3
7.0
6.3
4.5
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
3.9
6.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.6
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.3
4.2
50.0
3.6
3.7
4.0
3.3
48.0
3.0
46.0
2.0
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 09, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 09, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
75,429
(4.0)
5.6
2.7
Russia
Micex
4,327
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
11,515
0.7
6.1
14.1
China
Shanghai Composite
2,682
(1.5)
(11.3)
(20.8)
South Africa
Top 40
50,441
1.7
(1.7)
1.9
Mexico
Mexbol
49,612
2.2
6.3
(1.0)
Indonesia
LQ45
937
(2.7)
(2.6)
(4.7)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,804
(0.1)
1.6
1.7
Thailand
SET 50
1,136
2.5
0.7
9.9
USA
Dow Jones
26,155
3.4
3.9
17.5
UK
FTSE
7,304
(4.0)
(4.3)
0.7
Japan
Nikkei
23,095
4.0
1.1
19.8
Germany
DAX
12,124
(0.3)
(5.5)
(3.2)
France
CAC
5,353
0.9
(1.8)
2.1
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
October 09, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
31-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,235
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 09, 2018
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
October 09, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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